Tackling the Nepal perception

India needs to do a lot more to help Kathmandu resolve the Madhesi crisis. As of now, Delhi’s handling of the issue has been below par. It is time for the Prime Minister to personally intervene and lead the reconciliation efforts. Or else, China will fill the vacuum 

Now close to 130 days since the Madhesi standoff,  Kathmandu’s stance has not reached the level where it can meaningfully end the logjam, created out of discriminatory provisions of the new Constitution. Insincerity and escapism are on top at the shivering hills, while at some distance, over nine lakh people suffer without essentials and shelter. In fact, much of Nepal is living without basic supplies  and witnessing a serious humanitarian crisis.

This situation, as painful as the one borne out of the deadly April-May earthquake, is man-made. This is to give traction to the interests of a few political blocks including the CPN (UML) and the UCPN (M) led by Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’. Notably, Prachanda is today a weakened force without his key comrade-in-arm.

A thinking politician, Mr Baburam Bhattarai moved out of Prachanda’s camp to form a new political outfit, the Naya Shakti, that maintains a rational view on current political issues. So, in the long term, this fledgling party, with the Nepali Congress and the Madhesi groups, is going to shape the political future of Nepal. The radicalism will orient probably more for nation-making than personification, which was the order of the day for a long time.

Thus, while Nepal is on the cusp of a structural change, India should come to terms with the aspirations of Nepalese masses rather than continue with its policies which are making the KPS Oli-led Government in Kathmandu the cynosure. Remarkably, Mr Oli is at the helm in Kathmandu only because he played a vital role in ensuring the ‘partition-like atmosphere’ in Nepal by turning a deaf ear to the demands of the agitating Madhesi communities. The new Constitution makes condemnable discrimination on the basis of ethnicity, geography and gender.

This writer, while travelling through Nepal, found that at the public level, the resentment is against the insensitive dealing of the matters by the regime, cunningly positioned in Kathmandu. So, this ground reality as such should be enough for New Delhi to end its damaging slumbering and work its emissaries in Kathmandu, who otherwise have mostly just been enjoying the sprawling comfort of the Indian embassy in the capital.

As Nepal has turned into a black-market, India can’t ignore its role in the mess. It has mostly stopped supplies to Nepal, but allows around 15 per cent of supplies to be delivered through legitimate sources. Why this dualism? The four-month economic blockade has harmed India’s own interests in unimaginable ways — the country has incurred a loss of over four billion dollars, and the goodwill earned over decades through being faithful and caring, has come under a cloud.

As per the Nepal Rashtra Bank, the country’s economy is in negative growth after years — the country, badly ravaged by the earthquake, couldn’t hold moments before entering to a crisis no one imagined, sans those who had designed and executed it. In the test of diplomacy, New Delhi has missed to get a sense from the present cycle of crises that the angst of the Madhesis stems from constitutional discrimination and is not directed at the hill-based communities.

The stalemate in Nepal, though most serious, can’t be said to be a civil war. Ideally, India should have known this from its official sources in Kathmandu, but that didn’t happen. Now it has ended up supporting the Samyukta Loktantrik Madhesi Morcha, a joint front of Madhes-based parties.

The bigger worry is that of the Morcha’s obstinacy, even when Kathmandu has moved for constitutional amendments and New Delhi has welcomed it. The Morcha lacks a sense of urgency to solve the problem — and largely the quality of statesmanship among its leaders. The movement is for a final solution with genuine demands, but the mode of protest of the Morcha and the response system of Kathmandu are keeping the solutions far-placed.

Apparently, the Ministry of External Affairs in New Delhi is relying on a canard: Its continuing habit of reading the neighbourhood wrong proves that without much effort. As this crisis has shown how China is still not a competing force to India in Nepal, New Delhi must get things right in its favour by ending the imperial ways of its embassy’s functioning in Kathmandu and channelising the pressure for a constructive outcome.

India shares a delicate relationship with Nepal, which is based on roti-beti sambandh. Its approach has to be distinctly different from how its deals with other neighbours. Upfront, New Delhi should review the sub-standard performance of its diplomatic regime, dealing with the complex Nepal affairs in the last few months so as to send a message that it is committed to its Neighbourhood First policy.

Indians who travel to Nepal in these currently testing times, find themselves on a low moral footing as they see the suffering on the ground.

Governments are run by humans, not only by methods and applications. This has to be proven by someone sensible enough to carry out course-correction. India cannot afford to have a permanently unstable Nepal, as this can wreck its geo-political order. India should not take Nepal for granted and handle the mess on a priority basis.

Notwithstanding the maddening claims of moral uprightness, the Nepalese in general can’t go much farther with the present state of affairs. The winter is extremely harsh in Nepal and hearths are not in proper functional order. This should satisfy the fragile egos of Mr Oli, his colleagues and their Indian counterparts, who have spent a good four months without doing anything significant.

India’s strategic interests have been backtracked in Nepal, not to mention the damage to goodwill. If it continues with its indifferent attitude towards its northern neighbourhood, it should get ready for a huge mess: Over 650km of open borders and family-ties will come under strain and this will finally be leveraged by China.

Realism should touch policies. Remember the saying, ‘One cannot change one’s neighbours.’ India has to see the beauty of the small in Nepal. It should bring the Himalayan nation back to normalcy as early as it can. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has visited Nepal twice already, should look into matters personally. The failure to do so in the neighbourhood, will not bode well for him.